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Original Article

A Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients With Primary Spinal Cord Glioblastoma

Neurospine 2024;21(2):676-689.
Published online: June 30, 2024

1Department of Neurosurgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Soochow University, Suzhou, China

2Department of Neurosurgery, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China

Corresponding Author Rujun Li Department of Neurosurgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Soochow University, Sanxiang Road, Gusu District, Suzhou 215004, China Email: newjun_li@163.com
• Received: January 15, 2024   • Revised: April 9, 2024   • Accepted: April 17, 2024

Copyright © 2024 by the Korean Spinal Neurosurgery Society

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  Crossref logo
  • Influence of treatment modalities on survival and progression free survival in primary spinal cord glioblastoma: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis
    Pedro Lucas Negromonte Guerra, Inaê Carolline Silveira Silva, Deoclides Lima, Mateus Rodrigues Souza, Tomoo Inoue, Toshiki Endo, Eduardo Vieira Carvalho Júnior
    European Spine Journal.2026; 35(5): 2566.     CrossRef
  • Primary Spinal Cord Glioblastoma Initially Misdiagnosed Inflammatory Demyelinating Disease: An Autopsy Case
    Mayuko Sakuwa, Tadashi Adachi, Kentaro Yoshida, Yuki Suzuki, Karen Makishima, Yutaka Suto, Hiroki Fukuda, Yoshito Hosoda, Takuya Furuta, Ritsuko Hanajima
    Neurology and Clinical Neuroscience.2025; 13(5): 379.     CrossRef
  • Disease characteristics and clinical specific survival prediction of spinal ependymoma: a genetic and population-based study
    Tengyue Fu, Chuxiao Mao, Zhuming Chen, Yuxiang Huang, Houlin Li, Chunhua Wang, Jie Liu, Shenyu Li, Famu Lin
    Frontiers in Neurology.2024;[Epub]     CrossRef

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A Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients With Primary Spinal Cord Glioblastoma
Neurospine. 2024;21(2):676-689.   Published online June 30, 2024
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A Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients With Primary Spinal Cord Glioblastoma
Neurospine. 2024;21(2):676-689.   Published online June 30, 2024
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A Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients With Primary Spinal Cord Glioblastoma
Image Image Image Image Image
Fig. 1. The final diagnosis flowchart for patient enrollment. SEER, Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results; GBM, glioblastoma.
Fig. 2. In primary spinal cord glioblastoma, the median survival time is 11 months. The overall survival rates at 1, 1.5, and 2 years were 45.5%, 29.5%, and 18.9%, respectively.
Fig. 3. In the Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis, we considered variables such as age groups (A), sex (B), race (C), tumor extension (D), extent of resection (E), adjuvant therapy (F), year of diagnosis (G), marital status at diagnosis (H), median household income (MHI) inflation adjusted to 2019 (I), and months from diagnosis to treatment (J). The analysis revealed significant differences only in age groups, adjuvant therapy and extent of resection.
Fig. 4. The nomogram functions as a visual tool, effectively depicting the correlation between each variable and the annual survival rate. The variables in the nomogram design hold different degrees of importance, where a higher cumulative score indicates a lower annual survival rate. OS, overall survival.
Fig. 5. The area under the curve (AUC) represents the area under the blue curve, providing a method for predicting annual overall survival (OS) accuracy. Specifically, the AUC values for 1 year (A), 1.5 years (B), and 2 years (C) were determined as 0.71, 0.70, and 0.72, respectively. Importantly, an AUC exceeding 0.70 indicates a superior predictive effect. In plots for 1 year (D), 1.5 years (E), and 2 years (F), greater alignment between the red line segment and the blue dashed line signifies higher accuracy in survival prediction by the model. Finally, the decision curve analysis was employed to validate the clinical efficacy of 1- (G), 1.5- (H), and 2-year OS rates (I). CI, confidence interval.
A Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients With Primary Spinal Cord Glioblastoma
Variable Total (n=132) Alive (n=24) Cancer-specific death (n=108) p-value
Age (yr), median (IQR) 30 (15–46) 37.5 (24.0–53.5) 28 (14.8–46.0) 0.102
Age groups (yr) 0.106
 0–17 39 (29.5) 3 (12.5) 36 (33.3)
 18–64 83 (62.9) 18 (75.0) 65 (60.2)
 ≥ 65 10 (7.6) 3 (12.5) 7 (6.5)
Sex 0.967
 Female 61 (46.2) 11 (45.8) 50 (46.3)
 Male 71 (53.8) 13 (54.2) 58 (53.7)
Race 0.194
 White 75 (56.8) 10 (41.7) 65 (60.2)
 Black 7 (5.3) 1 (4.2) 6 (5.6)
 Other/unknown 50 (37.9) 13 (54.2) 37 (34.3)
Tumor extension 0.074
 Localized 104 (78.8) 23 (95.8) 81 (75.0)
 Distant 10 (7.6) 0 (0) 10 (9.3)
 Unknown 18 (13.6) 1 (4.2) 17 (15.7)
Extent of resection 0.087
 Biopsy 14 (10.6) 0 (0) 14 (13.0)
 Partial resection 71 (53.8) 12 (50.0) 59 (54.6)
 Gross total resection 47 (35.6) 12 (50.0) 35 (32.4)
Adjuvant therapy 0.936
 None 10 (7.6) 2 (8.3) 8 (7.4)
 Radiotherapy only 18 (13.6) 4 (16.7) 14 (13.0)
 Chemotherapy only 2 (1.5) 0 (0) 2 (1.9)
 Radiochemotherapy 88 (66.7) 15 (62.5) 73 (67.6)
 Unknown 14 (10.6) 3 (12.5) 11 (10.2)
Year of diagnosis < 0.001*
 1975–1994 10 (7.5) 0 (0) 10 (9.3)
 1995–2014 63 (47.7) 4 (16.7) 59 (54.6)
 2014–2023 59 (44.7) 20 (83.3) 39 (36.1)
Marital status at diagnosis 0.191
 Single (never married) 73 (55.3) 10 (41.7) 63 (58.3)
 Married (including common law) 50 (37.9) 13 (54.2) 37 (34.3)
 Divorced/widowed 9 (6.8) 1 (4.2) 8 (7.4)
MHI inflation adjusted to 2019 (USD) 0.397
 < 50,000 40 (30.3) 10 (41.7) 30 (27.8)
 50,000–59,999 21 (15.9) 5 (20.8) 16 (14.8)
 60,000–69,999 27 (20.5) 4 (16.7) 23 (21.3)
 > 70,000 36 (27.3) 5 (20.8) 31 (28.7)
 Unknown 8 (6.1) 0 (0) 8 (9.3)
Months from diagnosis to treatment 0.003*
 Immediate treatment within 1 mo 102 (77.3) 13 (54.2) 89 (82.4)
 No immediate treatment within 1 mo 30 (22.7) 11 (45.8) 19 (17.6)
Variable Univariate analysis
Multivariate analysis
HR 95% CI p-value HR 95% CI p-value
Age groups (yr)
 0–17 Reference
 18–64 0.64 0.42–0.97 0.034* 0.59 0.38–0.92 0.021*
 ≥ 65 1.26 0.55–2.85 0.586 1.21 0.48–3.05 0.690
Sex 0.92 0.63–1.34 0.651
Race
 White Reference
 Black 0.70 0.30–1.63 0.410
 Other/unknown 0.96 0.64–1.45 0.855
Tumor extension
 Localized Reference
 Distant 2.34 1.20–4.56 0.012* 2.71 1.33–5.52 0.006*
 Unknown 1.48 0.88–2.51 0.143 0.76 0.32–1.79 0.532
Extent of resection
 Biopsy Reference
 Partial resection 0.62 0.35–1.12 0.117 0.70 0.29–1.66 0.417
 Gross total resection 0.38 0.20–0.72 0.003* 0.36 0.14–0.93 0.034*
Adjuvant therapy
 None Reference
 Radiotheraphy only 0.48 0.20–1.17 0.106 0.45 0.17–1.24 0.123
 Chemotherapy only 1.85 0.39–8.80 0.438 2.23 0.46–10.81 0.320
 Radiochemotherapy 0.43 0.20–0.91 0.027* 0.37 0.16–0.85 0.019*
 Unknown 0.39 0.15–1.02 0.054 0.27 0.09–0.78 0.016*
Year of diagnosis
 1975–1994 Reference
 1995–2014 0.57 0.29–1.12 0.104 0.77 0.23–2.63 0.677
 2014–2023 0.46 0.23–0.93 0.031* 0.44 0.11–1.69 0.230
Marital status at diagnosis
 Single (never married) Reference
 Married (including common law) 0.76 0.51–1.15 0.196
 Divorced/widowed 0.89 0.42–1.86 0.748
MHI inflation adjusted to 2019 (USD)
 < 50,000 Reference
 50,000–59,999 0.92 0.05–1.68 0.777
 60,000–69,999 1.53 0.89–2.63 0.128
 > 70,000 0.83 0.49–1.39 0.474
 Unknown 1.74 0.79–3.81 0.166
Months from diagnosis to treatment
 Immediate treatment within 1 mo Reference
 No immediate treatment within 1 mo 0.63 0.38–1.03 0.067
Table 1. Demographic and treatment characteristics of patients with primary spinal cord glioblastoma

Values are presented as number (%) unless otherwise indicated.

IQR, interquartile range; MHI, median household income; USD, United States dollar.

p<0.05, the groups exhibited statistically significant differences.

Table 2. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis of cancer-specific survival

HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; MHI, median household income; USD, United States dollar.

p<0.05, a statistical difference with the first subgroup within the group.